Showing posts with label numbers never lie until you get involved. Show all posts
Showing posts with label numbers never lie until you get involved. Show all posts

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Statistics is Just a Fancy Way to Lie II (Part A)

Numbers....numbers...numbers...

I don't often delve too deep into the number on this blog. Honestly, I'm more interested in how we as runners approach long runs, races, running in general, and other philosophical or mental aspects of the sport. I also love the overwhelming support and encouragement bloggers share with one another (well...this guy and this guy have some issues to work out).

But, I won't pretend that I don't look at the numbers or think about them. I just know to never get too caught up in them. And the story below is illustrative as to why getting caught up in the numbers is a bad idea.*

Thus far this training cycle I've done three 20M+ runs, a 20M, a 22M, and a 22M. My average pace went 7:09/M, 7:14/M, 7:18/M. You could argue I'm trending downwards, notwithstanding the fact that I'm in better running shape than I was three weeks ago when I ran my 20M. So what accounts for this? A few things. First, my first 22M run was the weekend following my 20M. Back-to-back 20M runs is demanding, and a slight drop off is understandable. While this weekend I decided to return to the Lansing area and run my Hills of Death route (pictured below). So, despite being my slowest average, my 7:18/M pace is significantly better than I've ever run on that route (besting my 7:43/M top spot from last year).

And, yet, I don't feel overly optimistic about my HoD run because of the way I fell apart over the last seven miles. As you can see from the graph below, I started to really 'chunk-up' time during the last third of the run.



Still, at mile 20 I had a 7:15/M average; but the last two miles (also the first two miles) were unshoveled sidewalk lightly covered in a fresh layer of snow--the kind that conceals ice and matted down clumps of snow perfect for rolling an ankle. On my way out I nearly fell three times. By the time I returned to these miles I was unable to pick it up or even run fast enough to maintain the 7:40ish average I had for miles 17-20. Basically, the first time through the hills went well, but on the second round the hills ground me up like a piece of low quality processed meat.

SPAM...so good.**



In case you ever want to run this fun little 11M out/back, you just start at the MAC and head north on Hagadorn to Grand River. Take Grand River east to Park Lake Road. Follow Park Lake north until you get to a road called Coleman (you cannot miss Coleman because you look to the right and see three angry hills). Go east on Coleman until it dead ends, run west back on Coleman to Park Lake and turn north again. Take Park Lake north until you hit the I-69 ramps. Turn around, then enjoy the hills again. The elevation gain is 2523, the loss is 2546, with a net of -17. Below is the elevation chart for my first 22M. NOTE: This route involves lots of road running. Basically, there are no sidewalks on Park Lake or Coleman north of Lake Lansing. If you are not comfortable running on roads, this is not a route for you. As always, be safe out there.


Above is the elevation graph for my first 22M run around the greater Howell area. Elevation gain is 2178, elevation loss is 2190, net is - 12. Now, compare the above two routes to another 'difficult' route.

Elevation gain is 1129, loss is 1545, and the net is -416.



* In Part B of this post I'll talk in depth about trends form five different marathon training cycles.

** Down goes another potentially lucrative endorsement deal.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Statistics is Just a Fancy Way to Lie

There are lots of ways to look at the raw data (provided by Garmin the Great) from my tempo run last night. But first I have to talk about a mild injury. It seems I have strained a glut—which is fancy medical talk for saying my left butt cheek hurts. I went to the sports doctor yesterday and she said it was a simple strain, nothing serious at all. What is strange is that it doesn’t hurt at all when I run. But it causes mild and very dull pain at random times during the day. The good Drs advice was to stretch and rest but no need to alter my training. Whew.

Now to manipulating the numbers to make myself feel better; my goal for the tempo run was to hit a 7:30 first mile, then crank it up to 6:40s to 6:45s for the remaining 7 miles. Well my first mile was a 7:10 (FAIL). Mile 2 was a 6:32 (faster than goal, but still a FAIL). Mile 3 was a 6:44. Miles 4 and 5 were 6:51 (slow and therefore FAILS). Mile 6 was a 6:38 (faster than goal, but still a FAIL). Mile 7 was a 6:41. Mile 8 was a 6:39 (close, but a FAIL).

I don’t like all those fails in the above paragraph. So, like all great slackers, I’ve downgraded my standards to meet my performance. And by that I mean I’ve decided that going faster than 6:40 is good, thereby removing three fails. Just like that, things are looking up. The two 6:51 were against a headwind and on the hilly part of the course, and six seconds is pretty close considering those two factors…and presto, they are qualified fails. Moreover, my average pace for my tempo run was 6:42, right within range! And the 7:10 fail, who cares what my first mile is so long as it is not slower than what I had originally planned. Therefore, all things considering it was a very successful tempo run.